The game we all have been waiting for.
The game we have all been waiting for is finally here. Not only is it the first day of baseball playoffs, but it's a matchup with arguably the biggest rivalry in all of sports history. Tonight, for the first time in 4 years, the Boston Red Sox will play against the New York Yankees for the first game of a three-game series for the wildcard round.
To begin looking at this game, we should take a look at the pitching match up
Pitching Matchup
Garrett Crochet (BOS)
During the regular season, Crochet put up very impressive numbers. With an 18-5 record, 2.59 ERA, 205.1 IP, and 255 K, Crochet has had a very impressive season. Being one of the most reliable starters this year, Crochet has found a grove in generating strikeouts and limiting good contact, something the Red Sox’s need going into this tough series, but seeing the Yankees lineup on the road, this will be a hard game for Crochet as well. If Boston wants to win, they would need to heavily rely on Crochet keeping this game under control through the middle innings.
Max Fried (NYY)
With Garrett Cole still injured, the Yankees decided to come in today with their next best pitcher in line, Max Fried. With an also impressive regular season with stats of: a record of 16-5, 3.02 ERA, 176.2 IP, and 163 K, Max Fried looks like he is in one of his best states of his carrer. Being also very reliable pitcher, Fried can definitely put up a good fight, especially with some bigger names out on the Red Sox's lineup today, the Yankees will really need to count on him to keep the Red Sox soft off the bat.
This pitching matchup is definitely one of the better ones we will see for a good bit. Crochet with a younger arm with a high-upside, and a veteran pitcher with Fried with experience in these games, we will see a strong game from both these pitchers.
Now, looking at both teams, heres what I’ve come down to. The Red Sox’s, coming in with a strong bullpen, a good closer with veteran Aroldis Chapman, the pictchers need to step up if the Red Soxs want a solid chance at not only this game, but the series as well. The lineup has show that they are capable to being able to get a lot of runs, but they lack consistency. Adding on, without Lucas Giolito available for potentially the resort of the year, the Red Sox’s need to get a win here if they want a good chance at this series, adding more pressure onto Crochet and his performance.
For the Yankees, their advantage is on their offense. Led by Judge and many other players who can turn up at any moment, they can easily change the game within one swing. Adding on, having their home field advantage for this first game, the environment of Yankee Stadium hyping them up is an additional advantage for the Yankees tonight. One disadvantage with the yankees I can pick up on, is that their bullpen, atleast for the last while, has not been as reliable during later stages of the game, leaving the later innings for a time to strike for the Red Soxs.
Betting Odds as of 3:45 Sep 30
Moneyline: Yankees favorited at -143, with Red Sox’s listed at +118
Run line: Yankees have the runline set at -1.5 (+150), while for the Red Soxs it is +1.5 (-194)
Total: o/u 6.5 runs. Over at -124, under at +102
The Yankees enter this matchup as favorites, a role they have held often this season. New York has been favored 139 times and won 84 of those games (60.4%). Also, when they have been favorited by -137 or shorter odds, they’ve gone 7-39 which is about a 64 percent win rate. With the odds, the books show them having a 58% chance to win.
For the Red Soxs, they have been underdogs in only 58 games this year and winning half at 29. When they have been +117 or longer odds, they have gone 11-15, about a 43% win rate. For today, the books show they have a 46% chance to win.
While, with the books, the numbers go towards Yankees winning, I still believe Boston can stand their ground in New York. With a better bullpen in later innings, if Crochet can have a solid 7ish innings with less then 2 runs given up, the Red Soxs can steal this game.
In all fairness, this will be a great matchup, but as a Red Soxs fan myself, I am sticking with my team to win this game. Boston’s relief depth and strong lineup gives them the light edge in what should be a good game.
My final prediction: Red Soxs 4 Yankees 3